On July 13, 2023, Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District Court of New York issued the much-anticipated summary judgment order in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) case against Ripple Labs and two senior leaders, Bradley Garlinghouse and Christian Larsen. The ruling was a partial win for Ripple Labs when she declared that XRP was not a security when sold to the public on the crypto exchange.
Regrettably, the ruling did not offer clear regulatory guidance on the specific criteria that determine whether a digital asset is considered a security. Judge Torres primarily addressed the third prong of the case, making it challenging to apply the 76-year-old Howey Test effectively to cryptocurrencies like XRP.
The issue became a bit uncomplicated when the summary judgment declared that XRP was a security when sold as a contract to institutional investors.
The ruling gave Ripple Labs a partial win against the regulator taking part of the matter to full trial. Whether the SEC will pursue the matter further remains to be seen with the Chair Gary Gensler saying they are still analyzing the ruling.
Following the court’s pronouncement on the case, XRP went ballistic, rising a whopping 98% to $0.9327. Its total value also shot up as the payments token reclaimed its position as the third largest non-stablecoin crypto by market capitalization.
Several crypto exchanges including Coinbase which had delisted XRP relisted it with others such as Gemini listing it for the first time.
Given today’s ruling that the sale of XRP on exchanges is not a security, @Gemini is exploring the listing of XRP for both spot and derivatives trading.
— Gemini (@Gemini) July 13, 2023
At the time of writing, XRP price is hovering around $0.715 with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.3 billion. XRP is down 0.22% in the last 24 hours and up 48% over the last month. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #4, with a live market cap of $37.55 billion. It has a circulating supply of 52,693,851,493 XRP coins and a maximum supply of 100,000,000,000 XRP coins.
XRP Overview
XRP is a cryptocurrency that many believe could reshape the global financial system. However, many critics have concerns about its centralization, coin distribution, and regulatory uncertainty. Despite the many hurdles and challenges it has faced, XRP has managed to keep its position among the top 10 cryptocurrencies in the world in terms of market capitalisation.
What is XRP
XRP is a crypto that operates on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), a decentralized blockchain network. It was first launched in 2012 by David Schwartz, Jed McCaleb and Arthur Britto with its native currency XRP as a faster, more energy-efficient alternative to the Bitcoin blockchain. In September that year, along with Chris Larsen, they founded the company that is today known as Ripple Labs, which aims to provide fast, low-cost cross-border payment solutions.
Unlike traditional financial systems, which rely on intermediary banks for international transactions, XRP and the XRP Ledger facilitate direct and quick transfers of value between parties. It is designed to be a bridge currency, providing liquidity and enabling seamless currency exchanges.
XRP has gained popularity in the cryptocurrency space due to its fast transaction speeds (settling transactions in 3-5 seconds), low fees ($0.0002 per transaction), scalability (1,500 TPS) and inherently green attributes (carbon-neutral and energy-efficient). It is used by financial institutions and payment processors to facilitate cross-border remittances and transfers.
It’s essential to note that XRP is separate from the company Ripple Labs, although the company holds a significant amount of XRP. XRP’s development and transactions are maintained by a decentralized network of validators, making it a decentralized cryptocurrency.
The XRP Ledger also features the first decentralized exchange (DEX) and custom tokenization capabilities built into the protocol. Since 2012, the XRPL has been operating reliably, having closed over 81 million ledgers.
As such, “Ripple allows users to make peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers in any currency. A key function of XRP is to facilitate the conversion from one currency to another.
The Future of XRP
While Ripple has made tremendous developments and partnered with several companies and countries around the world, it still faces an uncertain future arising from the ongoing legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The future trajectory of the XRP price will heavily hinge on the outcome of the ongoing lawsuit.
In December 2020, the SEC filed a lawsuit against two Ripple executives: Christian Larsen, the executive chairman of the board and former CEO and co-founder, and Bradley Garlinghouse, the current CEO and member of the board of directors. The SEC alleged that they conducted an unregistered digital-asset securities offering, raising over $1.3 billion.
The SEC’s argument rested on classifying XRP as a security rather than a currency, subjecting it to regulation by the market watchdog. The lawsuit contended that Ripple accumulated billions of dollars through the sale of XRP to fund the company’s operations. Additionally, it accused Larsen and Garlinghouse of profiting by more than $600 million from “personal unregistered sales of XRP.”
On July 13, presiding judge Analisa Torres delivered a summary judgment on the case handing the blockchain company a win when she ruled that XRP was not a security when sold to retail investors on exchanges.
The court, in response to summary judgment requests from both parties, concluded that Ripple’s institutional sales of XRP were deemed to be an unregistered securities offering. However, it was ruled that programmatic sales did not fall under the same classification.
This news was good music to XRP holders who went on a buying spree that saw the price rally as much as 88% to reach $0.95 on July 13. The momentum has since cooled down with the price resting just above $0.70.
While Ripple Labs did not completely win, it definitely didn’t lose. Part of the lawsuit is now moving to full trial, which means that the crypto company still has to defend itself in court.
US District Judge Analisa Torres wrote in the filing that the court will schedule a trial to deal with the issues not answered in the summary judgment.
While the crypto community, particularly the XRP Army, considers the Jiuy 13 summary judgment a major win, the fight is not over.
The SEC is expected to appeal the ruling that programmatic sales are not securities, according to Rahsan Boykin, general counsel for Hashflow. The SEC has used this argument in other crypto cases, including its ongoing case against Binance, said Boykin.
In the end, the Court’s final decision on the case after the trial will definitely impact the XRP price in the future. Meanwhile, let’s look at the historical journey the XRP price has gone through since its debut in 2013.
XRP Price Journey
Now, let’s briefly examine the historical price movements of Ripple. While it’s important to note that past performance should not be solely relied upon to predict future outcomes, understanding the coin’s past behavior can provide valuable context when interpreting ripple price predictions for 2030 or formulating our own forecasts.
XRP, developed by Ripple Labs in 2012, was designed to enable seamless cross-border transactions with swift settlement times and minimal fees. The token was first listed on Bitstamp in August $0.05. The coin then underwent a brief bull run, reaching a price peak of $0.05238, which was subsequently followed by a crash, leading to several years of trading at levels below $0.01. The price then experienced a significant bull run in 2017 rising 53325% from $0.005 in January to a high of $2.47 in December.
Note that 2018 was a pivotal year for Ripple with the launch of the xRapid product which marked a defining moment for the company, as XRP cryptocurrency aimed to revolutionize money transfers, including within the banking system. This generated an extraordinary response from the market, propelling the price of XRP to skyrocket by a staggering 1820%, surging from a modest $0.2 to an all-time high of all-time highs at $3.31 on Bitstamp, eliciting immense excitement among investors. It should be remembered that XRP has never revisited these record highs again.
However, this jubilation was short-lived, as XRP eventually succumbed to the 2018 bear market, experiencing a sharp 97% decline in a matter of months to lows of $0.1432 in March 2020.
XRP/USD All-time Chart
Although XRP tried to recover during the second half of 2020, the SEC brought a lawsuit against Ripple Labs and its top leaders, accusing them of selling XRP as an unregistered security.
Yet, XRP rebounded in 2021 during a bullish frenzy in the entire cryptocurrency market, delivering significant returns to investors who entered at the opportune time. Within six months, the cryptocurrency impressively surged by 829% to $1.96 in April that year. .
Nevertheless, this was followed by a steady downward trend as the token price continued to suffer under the effects of the SEC lawsuit, creating high levels of uncertainty around the coin. As major cryptos hit new all-time highs in November that year, XRP continued on a gradual decline to $0.3 during the 2022 bear market.
By December 31, 2022, XRP was trading at $0.3399, having lost nearly 60% over the course of the year. However, over the course of 2022, ripple had actually outperformed the crypto market, which was down around 65% throughout the year.
So far 2023 has been a more upbeat year for both XRP and the crypto market. The international remittances token has exhibited signs of recovery in recent times.This began on July 13th 2023 when Ripple gained a partial victory in its lawsuit against the SEC leading to a substantial price increase and newfound hype. The price rose 88% from $0.47 to set a swing high at $0.95, which also makes the highest price hit in 2023.
The price history of XRP serves as a window into the volatile, dynamic, and often unpredictable world of cryptocurrencies. While the past may not guarantee future outcomes, it does offer valuable insights to guide investment decisions.
XRP Short-term Price Analysis
XRP price found a launching pad from the 50-weekly Simple Moving Average (SMA) on July 13, to stage an 88% rally to set a swing high at $0.95. The uptick was triggered by the summary judgment on the Ripple v. SEC case where the judge said that XRP was not a security. It saw the payments token flip the 200 and 100 SMAs into support.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $0.715 as it fights overhead pressure from the $0.8 psychological level. Increased buying from this level would see XRP rise to revisit the $0.95 swing high. Shattering this barrier would set the token on a sustained recovery first toward the $1 and $1.2 psychological levels.
In highly ambitious cases, Ripple’s price could climb higher to tag the $0.14 range high. Such a move would bring the total gains to 94.15%.
XRP/USD Weekly Chart
Supporting the upward outlook for XRP was the robust support the price enjoyed on the downside. These were areas defined by the 100, 200 and 50 SMAs at $0.58, $0.51, and $0.44 respectively. These demand zones were robust enough to absorb any selling pressure threatening to pull XRP lower.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was positioned in the positive region at 70. This suggested that the bulls were fully controlling the price and were determined to take it higher.
On the other hand, the RSI suggested XRP was recently massively overbought. As such, the ongoing correction might be a case of profit-taking which if it persists may see the crypto drop lower. The first breathing point could be the areas defined by the SMAs. Breaching this zone could see XRP drop lower to revisit the $0.30 support floor.
XRP Long-term Price Prediction
Forecasting the precise future value XRP over the next five or 20 years presents challenges due to the dynamic and volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market. Numerous factors come into play, such as market trends, adoption rates, regulatory changes, and overall market sentiment.
Ascertaining an exact estimation is difficult, and Ripple’s long-term value will hinge on its ability to achieve widespread adoption and utility, as well as resolve the ongoing legal dispute it is currently facing. Crypto enthusiasts should engage in comprehensive research, analyze market trends, and carefully consider potential risks before making any cryptocurrency-related decisions.
Nevertheless, several analysts have made predictions for XRP over the years. Notably, Thomas Kralow, a crypto hedge fund manager, previously forecasted that XRP would reach $30 per coin by 2023. However, this prediction overlooks the mathematical improbability of XRP achieving such a price, given its circulating supply of 100 billion coins. Hitting this target would result in a project market cap of $3 trillion, surpassing the current combined market cap of all cryptocurrencies by more than double.
In addition, for XRP to reach $30 this year, it has increased by 110% every month. This means that the price would hit $1.5 by the end of August, $6.6 by October and eventually around $30 in December.
| Year | Predicted Price |
| July | $0.713 |
| August | $1.497 |
| September | $3.144 |
| October | $6.603 |
| November | $13.866 |
| December | $29.120 |
However, it is highly unlikely that XRP will be able to increase exponentially, recording 110% month-on-month gains for the rest of this year.
In an effort to offer a more balanced perspective and steer clear of sensationalism often seen from fervent XRP enthusiasts, Grzegorz Drozdz, a market analyst at Conotoxia presents two scenarios. A bullish outlook driven by increased popularity and positive legal outcomes, while a bearish view is influenced by declining interest, token design concerns,regulatory issues and broader market sell-offs.
For the bullish case, the analyst says the recent court decision, which was seemingly in favor of XRP, has already created a ripple effect on its price. “This positivity around XRP is a reaction to the current court ruling, which seems to be impacting its growth,” observes Drozdz. Further favorable rulings and developments related to the ongoing litigation could continue to boost XRP’s price even further.
In addition to legal considerations, the overall condition of the cryptocurrency market can exert a substantial influence on XRP. Drozdz emphasizes that a significant uptrend in the crypto space could prove advantageous for XRP. If Bitcoin experiences a notable increase, XRP might likely benefit from riding the wave of the positive market conditions created by the big crypto.
For the bearish case, Drozdz emphasizes that the resolution of the ongoing litigation could, paradoxically, lead to a decline in XRP’s price if Ripple loses in the full trial. Once the excitement around the lawsuit fades, there could be a drop in interest for XRP. That could negatively impact its price in the medium term.
Moreover, apprehensions regarding the XRP’s utility in Ripple’s cross-border payment system could affect its long term value. Some argue that the currency appears to be largely redundant and potentially unnecessary for the system’s functioning. Even if XRP is employed to settle payments, its value does not directly impact the system’s functionality, as the settlements are executed in fiat currency. Consequently, whether XRP is priced at $1 or 1 cent, the payment process remains unaffected and operates as usual.
That notwithstanding, there are those bold enough to pronounce themselves on the future value of XRP. For example, CaptainAltCoin made an XRP price prediction for 2030 saying that the coin could be worth $3.88 and $7.77 in 2040.
Meanwhile, DigitalCoinPrice made a ripple price prediction for 2030 that said it could be worth $5.18. Finally, Telegaon claimed the international payments token could trade at an average price of $25.32 in 2030, before reaching $25 in 2040, and eventually, hit $125 in 2050.
Bottomline
When contemplating a price prediction for Ripple coin, it is important to understand that the crypto market is usually characterized by high volatilities. This inherent volatility makes it challenging to accurately forecast a coin or token’s price in the short term, let alone provide precise long-term estimates. Therefore, analysts and algorithm-based forecasters are susceptible to making incorrect predictions due to the unpredictable nature of the market.
It is also important to keep in mind that, just like in the past, XRP’s future price will be significantly influenced by the outcome of the Ripple vs SEC case. While many XRP proponents believe Ripple will emerge victorious, it is essential to be prepared for all possible outcomes.
Presently, XRP is experiencing turmoil and navigating through a period of considerable uncertainty.
